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May 3 - Week 4 Snapshot

“Dude, stop killing the bear!” my brother yelled at me.

Some obscure trade tactic? Nope. Critique on how I approached our keeper league draft? Hardly.
Commentary on the length of MOTY Talk entries so far in 2006?

Bingo.

Mind you, my bro is a fan of MOTY. And even though he doesn’t recall how the phrase came about,
“killing the bear” clearly means I’ve been writing, shall we say, “content heavy” MOTY Talk entries.

Okay, okay. Point taken. But in self-defense, the length of previous installments was driven by the best
of intentions — to explain the MOTY System as much as possible given the novelty of its approach in
examining the game.

With that, let’s take a “Snapshot” look at the Weekly MOTY Rankings for Week #4, commenting on any
players or scenarios that raise an eyebrow, or furrow both, as we rifle through the YTD and Last Week
rankings —
guys that might be available in your league or possible trade targets/bait. Keep in mind
that “Last Week” MOTY#s are “deltas” +/- over YTD MOTY#s.


American League:

Runelvys Hernandez sp (KC) – YTD MOTY#: 33.11   LW MOTY#: + 33.11
Granted, since he made his 2006 debut in Week 4, his MOTY# reflects “ye olde sample of smallness”
— merely 1 gs. So we have to take his MOTY# 33.11 with a deer-lick size grain of salt. But Hernandez
did look pretty good a few years back before a spat of injuries and surgery. If you’re scrambling for
pitching, “watchlisting” a guy who opens his season with a win, 0.29 whip and 1.29 era ain’t a bad
idea.

Nate Robertson sp (DET) – YTD MOTY#: 22.77   LW MOTY#: + 9.50
Week 4: 1 win, 7 K, 0.86 whip, 0.00 era, 7.00 K/bb, in 7 ip
YTD: 3 win, 21 K, 1.22 whip, 3.77 era, 3.00 K/bb, in 5 gs (28.667 ip)
And the Tiger offense is putting up runs.

Mark Hendrickson sp (TB) – YTD MOTY#: 102.51   LW MOTY#: - 13.54
Week 4: 0 win, 4 K, 1.00 whip, 0.00 era, 2.00 K/bb, 1gs (6 ip vs. the Yanks in the Bronx)
YTD: 1 win, 9 K, 0.67 whip, 0.00 era, 3.00 K/bb, 2 gs (15.0 ip)
He tops the unfiltered YTD MOTY rankings, primarily because of his very small stat sample (due to a
DL stint), but a 0.67 whip and 0.00 era in 15 ip are nothing to sneeze at.

Josh Towers sp (TOR) – YTD MOTY#: - 11.85   LW MOTY#: - 4.79
Week 4: 0 win, 2 K, 3.00 whip, 27.00 era, 2.00 K/bb, in 2.33 ip
YTD: 0 win, 12 K, 2.27 whip, 10.45 era, 1.33 K/bb, 9 bb, 20.667 ip
Wow. After 4 weeks, he’s the worst sp in the AL. Never saw this coming.

Ketih Foulke mr (BOS) – YTD MOTY#: 20.29   LW MOTY#: + 8.75
Week 4: 2 win, 6 K, 0.69 whip, 4.15 era, 6.00 K/bb (0 bb), in 4.33 ip
YTD: 2 win, 16 K, 0.76 whip, 3.71 era, 8.00 K/bb, 2 bb, 17 ip
Hmmm. Era isn’t so great, but 2 vulture wins are nice.

Ambiorix Burgos cl (KC) – YTD MOTY#: 9.80   LW MOTY#: + .087
Week 4: 0 win, 1 sv, 4 K, 0.90 whip, 2.70 era, 4.00 K/bb, 100% sv%, in 3.33 ip
YTD: 0 win, 2 sv, 12 K, 1.06 whip, 2.61 era, 2.40 K/bb, 5 bb, 67% sv %, in 10.33 ip
Okay, it’s not great … a committee closer with 2 saves. But Week 4 was encouraging.

Eddie Guardado cl (SEA) – YTD MOTY#: 1.74   LW MOTY#: + 2.01
Week 4: 0 win, 2 sv, 3 K, 2.00 whip, 3.00 era, 3.00 K/bb, 67% sv%, in 3 ip
YTD: 0 win, 4 sv, 10 K, 2.31 whip, 8.31 era, 1.43 K/bb, 67% sv %, in 8.67 ip
No, a 2.00 whip is not good, but it’s still an improvement, as were era and K/bb. Maybe “Everyday” is
returning to form, at least partially.

Toby Hall c (TB) – YTD MOTY#: 5.52   LW MOTY#: + 3.28
Week 4: 2 runs, 2 hr, 4 rbi, 0 sb, .444 avg., 1.283 ops (.600 obp/.778 slg), 3.50 bb/K. You gotta like the .
444 avg, especially given the 3.50 bb/K.

Ben Broussard 1b (CLE) – YTD MOTY#: 19.07   LW MOTY#: + 14.09
Week 4: 6 runs, 4 hr, 13 rbi, 0 sb, .625 avg., 2.085 ops (.647 obp/1.438 slg)
He was hot in Week 3. Absolutely nuclear in Week 4.

Dan Johnson 1b (OAK) – YTD MOTY#: 1.37   LW MOTY#: + 1.26
Week 4: 5 runs, 2 hr, 3 rbi, 0 sb, .368 avg., 1.189 ops (.400 obp/.789 slg), 1.00 bb/K
HORRIBLE start to the season. But a great Week 4 — only the most astute managers would’ve
picked him up already. Go take a look. Or “watchlist” him on a My Roster.

Richie Sexson 1b (SEA) – YTD MOTY#: 3.51   LW MOTY#: + 0.05
Week 4: 3 runs, 0 hr, 0 rbi, 0 sb, .158 avg., .518 ops (.360 obp/.158 slg), 3.00 bb/K
Horrible slump, but that 3.00 bb/K is encouraging.

Jose Lopez 2b (SEA) – YTD MOTY#: 7.37 LW MOTY#: + 2.58
Week 4: 3 runs, 2 hr, 5 rbi, 0 sb, 292 avg., .945 ops (.320 obp/.625 slg)
Only Brian Roberts (who went on the DL) and Tad Iguchi rank above him in the AL so far this year.

Mark Loretta 2b (BOS) – YTD MOTY#: 2.78   LW MOTY#: - 0.01
Week 4: 1 run, 0 hr, 2 rbi, 0 sb, .143 avg., .440 ops (.250 obp/.190 slg), .667 bb/K
Man, he’s scuffling. But he’s a pro’s pro — take advantage of the “buy low” opportunity.

Mike Lowell 3b (BOS) – YTD MOTY#: 7.01   LW MOTY#: + 3.47
Week 4: 4 run, 1 hr, 4 rbi, 0 sb, .435 avg., 1.114 ops (.462 obp/.652 slg), 2.00 bb/K
AL’s Top Dog third baseman for Week 4. How smart does Theo look now?

Troy Glaus 3b (TOR) – YTD MOTY#: 10.71   LW MOTY#: - 0.55
Week 4: 4 run, 0 hr, 2 rbi, 0 sb, .190 avg., .593 ops (.308 obp/.286 slg), 2.00 bb/K
Not to fret. Just one of the slumps you gotta suffer to get his power #s … note the bb/K.

Carlos Guillen ss (DET) – YTD MOTY#: 12.21   LW MOTY#: + 4.68
Week 4: 4 run, 2 hr, 9 rbi, 0 sb, .318 avg., 1.087 ops (.360 obp/.727 slg), .667 bb/K

Corey Patterson of (BAL) – YTD MOTY#: 7.23   LW MOTY#: + 6.15
Week 4: 4 run, 2 hr, 6 rbi, 3 sb, .529 avg., 1.467 ops (.526 obp/.941 slg), 1.00 bb/K

Marcus Thames of (DET) – YTD MOTY#: 5.14   LW MOTY#: + 3.95
Week 4: 4 run, 2 hr, 4 rbi, 0 sb, .500 avg., 1.783 ops (.583 obp/1.200 slg), 1.00 bb/K
Only 10 ab, but if he keeps producing like this, they’ll have to find him some more.

Torii Hunter of (MIN) – YTD MOTY#: 3.85   LW MOTY#: - 1.82
Week 4: 0 run, 0 hr, 0 rbi, 0 sb, .050 avg., .145 ops (.095 obp/.050 slg), .250 bb/K
‘Think he wants to be traded? What is going on with the Twins?!

Hideki Matsui of (NYY) – YTD MOTY#: 6.13   LW MOTY#: - .010
Week 4: 1 run, 0 hr, 3 rbi, 0 sb, .208 avg., .588 ops (.296 obp/.292 slg), .750 bb/K Another rough week
… maybe you can pry him away from someone.


National League:

Jeff Suppan sp (STL) – YTD MOTY#: 9.84   LW MOTY#: + 12.56
Week 4: 2 win, 6 K, 0.85 whip, 1.38 era, 3.00 K/bb, in 2 gs (13.0 ip)
YTD: 2 win, 11 K, 1.54 whip, 5.19 era, 1.10 K/bb, in 5 gs (26.0 ip)
A great Week 4 to turn his season around.

Wandy Rodriguez sp (HOU) – YTD MOTY#: 35.85   LW MOTY#: + 6.29
Week 4: 1 win, 6 K, 1.00 whip, 2.57 era, 3.00 K/bb, in 7.0 ip
YTD: 4 win, 21 K, 1.12 whip, 2.53 era, 2.33 K/bb, in 5 gs (32.0 ip)
Only 5 sp have 4+ wins and an era under 2.75. The other 4: Maddux, Arroyo, Webb and Capuano.

Doug Davis sp (MIL) – YTD MOTY#: 3.16   LW MOTY#: + 3.74
Week 4: 1 win, 2 K, 1.58 whip, 1.42 era, 0.40 K/bb, in 6.33 ip
YTD: 1 win, 22 K, 1.87 whip, 6.39 era, 0.85 K/bb, in 6 gs (31.0 ip)
Well, he finally won a game. And the era was nice. But who would’ve expected this YTD. Given the
signs of life in Week 4, either hang on to him on the bench or “watchlist” him on a My Roster if you don’
t have him.

Takashi Saito mr (LAD) – YTD MOTY#: 37.26   LW MOTY#: + 5.54
Week 4: 1 win, 0 sv, 7 K, 0.50 whip, 2.25 era, 7.00 K/bb, 4 gp (4.0 ip)
YTD: 2 win, 0 sv, 15 K, 0.69 whip, 0.69 era, 7.50 K/bb, in 12 gs (13.0 ip)
Possible vulture wins with very nice ratios, especially K/bb.

David Cortes mr (COL) – YTD MOTY#: 20.78   LW MOTY#: - 3.65
Week 4: 0 win, 0 sv, 3 K, 3.60 whip, 10.80 era, 3.00 K/bb (0 bb), 2 gp (1.667 ip)
YTD: 3 win, 0 sv, 9 K, 1.34 whip, 1.42 era, 4.50 K/bb, in 12 gs (12.667 ip)
Rough Week 4, and he does pitch in Colorado. But 3 vulture wins with nice YTD ratios … “watchlist”
him maybe.

Brad Lidge cl (HOU) – YTD MOTY#: 6.14   LW MOTY#: - 5.30
Week 4: 0 win, 1 sv, 4 K, 3.38 whip, 16.88 era, 0.67 K/bb (6 bb), 33% sv%
YTD: 0 win, 8 sv, 19 K, 1.82 whip, 6.39 era, 1.73 K/bb (11 bb), 80% sv%, in 12.667 ip
Huh? He’s almost averaging a walk per inning. What is going on?!

Johnny Estrada c (ARI) – YTD MOTY#: 5.00   LW MOTY#: + 4.00
Week 4: 2 run, 1 hr, 8 rbi, 0 sb, .500 avg., 1.286 ops (.500 obp/.786 slg), .50 bb/K
Catcher is mighty thin in the NL and Estrada is ranked #2 YTD after 4 weeks.

Nomar Garciaparra 1b [3b, ss] (COL) – YTD MOTY#: 5.09   LW MOTY#: + 4.46
Week 4: 5 run, 2 hr, 8 rbi, 1 sb, .250 avg., .985 ops (.385 obp/.600 slg), 5.00 bb/K
He’s back. And brought a monster bb/K with him.  

Adrian Gonzalez 1b (SD) – YTD MOTY#: 4.35   LW MOTY#: - 1.66
Week 4: 0 run, 0 hr, 1 rbi, 0 sb, .056 avg., .108 ops (.053 obp/.056slg), 23 ab

Brandon Phillips 2b (CIN) – YTD MOTY#: 12.85   LW MOTY#: + 2.10
Week 4: 3 run, 0 hr, 5 rbi, 3 sb, .300 avg., .750 ops (.400 obp/.350 slg), 1.333 bb/K
Slowing down, but still hot. The power’s correcting itself, but obp and bb/K are very nice … as are sbs.

Jeff Kent 2b (LAD) – YTD MOTY#: 2.53   LW MOTY#: - 0.27
Week 4: 1 run, 0 hr, 3 rbi, 0 sb, .100 avg., .300 ops (.200 obp/.100 slg), 1.000 bb/K
Don’t think it’s panic time just yet … but some might. Good trade target at this point.

Mark Bellhorn 3b (SD) – YTD MOTY#: 3.38   LW MOTY#: + 2.96
Week 4: 3 run, 1 hr, 4 rbi, 0 sb, .462 avg., 1.346 ops (.500 obp/.846 slg) in 13 ab

Vinny Castilla 3b (SD) – YTD MOTY#: 2.71   LW MOTY#: - 0.96
Week 4: 0 run, 0 hr, 1 rbi, 0 sb, .000 avg., .067 ops (.067 obp/.000 slg) in 13 ab

David Eckstein ss (STL) – YTD MOTY#: 6.54   LW MOTY#: + 2.02
Week 4: 6 run, 0 hr, 1 rbi, 1 sb, .320 avg., .766 ops (.406 obp/.360 slg), .500 bb/K
The Ecks-Factor just gets it done. And at the top of a potent lineup … gotta love that obp.

Rafael Furcal ss (LAD) – YTD MOTY#: 2.60   LW MOTY#: + 0.10
Week 4: 5 run, 0 hr, 0 rbi, 1 sb, .095 avg., .335 ops (.240 obp/.095 slg), .800 bb/K
At least the bb/K wasn’t dreadful.

Cory Sullivan of (COL) – YTD MOTY#: 7.50   LW MOTY#: + 4.65
Week 4: 5 run, 1 hr, 5 rbi, 1 sb, .444 avg., 1.247 ops (.469 obp/.778 slg) in 27 ab
YTD: 17 run, 1 hr, 5 rbi, 2 sb, .327 avg., .904 ops (.364 obp/.541 slg)
Really came alive in Week 4 — and the first-place Rocks were on the road.

Kenny Lofton of (LAD) – YTD MOTY#: 4.01   LW MOTY#: + 2.69
Week 4: 5 run, 0 hr, 1 rbi, 2 sb, .381 avg., 1.004 ops (.480 obp/.524 slg) 1.33 bb/K
Cheap steals … get ‘em while you can.

Shawn Green of (ARI) – YTD MOTY#: 3.14   LW MOTY#: + 1.96
Week 4: 5 run, 0 hr, 1 rbi, 0 sb, .458 avg., 1.000 ops (.500 obp/.500 slg) .667 bb/K
YTD: 13 runs, 1 hr, 3 rbi, 1 sb, .277 avg., .668 ops  (.318 obp/.349 slg), .250 bb/K
Significant up ticks in most every category. You can probably find him on the wire or get him in a deal.
“Buy Low, buy low.”

Jose Guillen of (WAS) – YTD MOTY#: 2.94   LW MOTY#: - 0.46
Week 4: 1 run, 1 hr, 2 rbi, 0 sb, .120 avg., .394 ops (.154 obp/.240 slg) .500 bb/K
He’s either hurt or about to explode. “Watchlist” him … they’re on the road, where he hit most of his
homers last year.

Jim Edmonds of (STL) – YTD MOTY#: 3.37   LW MOTY#: + 2.50
Week 4: 3 run, 1 hr, 7 rbi, 0 sb, .286 avg., .852 ops (.423 obp/.429 slg) 1.00 bb/K
Whew! There’s a pulse … finally.



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